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Unitree Closes Day One up 460% at ~RMB 342bn: Pricing and First-Day Review

FutureX Research · AI Lab · 2026.08.03 · 13 pp · preview 4 pp

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5-8 min · AI narration in English · abstract + all key findings

Abstract

(Data as of 2026-10-02) Unitree priced its STAR Market IPO at RMB 150.80 per share on the evening of August 9, implying a post-issue market capitalization of about RMB 60.99 billion and gross proceeds of about RMB 6.099 billion — roughly RMB 1.8 billion above the RMB 4.202 billion target. A correction is due: the August 3 edition of this report divided the target raise by the share count to derive an indicative price of ~RMB 104 and a ~RMB 42 billion valuation; the book-building outcome came in about 45% higher, and that gap is the over-raise. The offering P/E is 219.23x (diluted), roughly 5.7 times the 38.56x average trailing P/E of A-share robotics names. On August 10, 9.7846 million retail accounts subscribed at 8,288.82x initial oversubscription; the final online allocation rate after clawback was 0.01809759%, below the 0.02-0.03% the market had expected. One lot of 500 shares requires RMB 75,400, due August 12. Strategic placement locks about 20% of the deal — the National Social Security Fund, DeepSeek and CNPC among the participants, some tranches for 36 months. The shares listed on the STAR Market on August 19: they opened at RMB 1,100, up 629.44% (about RMB 444.9bn at the open), and closed at RMB 845, up 460.34%, for a closing market value of roughly RMB 341.8bn; a winning 500-share lot showed a paper gain of about RMB 347,000 at the close. This report is pricing-stage analysis plus an after-the-fact record; it makes no forecast of subsequent performance and is not investment advice.

Key Findings

  • 01Pricing outcome: the offering was priced at RMB 150.80 per share on the evening of August 9, implying a post-issue market cap of about RMB 60.99 billion and gross proceeds of about RMB 6.099 billion — roughly RMB 1.8 billion above the RMB 4.202 billion target. The August 3 edition of this report derived ~RMB 104 per share and a ~RMB 42 billion valuation by dividing the target raise by the share count, about 45% below the actual print; we correct that here explicitly.
  • 02Valuation multiple: the offering P/E is 219.23x (diluted), roughly 5.7 times the 38.56x average trailing P/E of A-share robotics names. Working backwards from disclosed figures, that multiple implies a net-profit base of about RMB 278 million — close to the 2025 attributable net profit (~RMB 288 million) rather than the RMB 591 million recurring figure; on the recurring basis the multiple would be about 103x.
  • 03Subscription and allocation: on August 10, 9.7846 million valid retail accounts subscribed, an initial oversubscription of 8,288.82x; the final online allocation rate after clawback was 0.01809759% (about 1.8 per 10,000), below the 0.02-0.03% the market had expected and among the lowest on the STAR Market this year (Changjin Photonics 0.020%, CXMT 0.47%). One lot of 500 shares requires RMB 75,400, with payment due August 12.
  • 04Strategic placement: about 20% of the deal is locked up via strategic allocation, with the National Social Security Fund, DeepSeek and CNPC among the participants and some tranches locked for 36 months. DeepSeek has separately agreed an AI-model partnership with Unitree, giving the placement an industrial-synergy dimension. Longer lock-ups mean a smaller effective free float in the early trading period.
  • 05Existing shareholders and intermediaries (per Jiemian News): Meituan-affiliated vehicles hold 9.65% with paper gains above RMB 3.6 billion; Sequoia China holds 7.11% on cumulative investment of about RMB 102 million; Variable Capital invested RMB 2.09 million in 2018 for a reported return of over 174x; Matrix Partners China holds 5.45% and Shunwei 4.42%. CITIC Securities earned sponsorship and underwriting fees of about RMB 145 million plus a RMB 122 million follow-on investment. A DJI-affiliated fund planned a RMB 10.13 million investment in 2018 and was briefly the largest outside shareholder, but exited via capital reduction in 2019 — a stake worth roughly RMB 3.7 billion at the offering price had it been retained.
  • 06Trading rules and historical context: STAR Market new listings have no daily price limit for the first five trading days. New STAR Market listings this year have averaged a 466.61% first-day gain with a 289.48% median, ranging from Yisiwei's 58.93% to Changjin Photonics' 1,510% (Zhenbao Technology second at 1,212.83%) — an extremely wide dispersion. Outcome: on August 19 Unitree closed its first day up 460.34% — almost exactly on this reference class's 466.61% year-to-date mean rather than near the 289.48% median. Worth recording: the reference class was right while the point estimate was wrong. Our August 3 back-solve of RMB 42bn from proceeds divided by shares was about 45% too low, whereas framing a range from the sector's first-day distribution landed close to the real outcome. This report makes no forecast of subsequent performance and is not investment advice.

Timetable: A 104-Day Review, Subscription on August 10

The most striking fact about this IPO is speed: accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on March 20, 2026, approved by the Listing Committee on June 1, registration submitted June 2, and CSRC registration effective July 2 — 104 days in total, widely reported as one of the fastest A-share IPOs of the year and the second deal under the STAR Market's pre-review mechanism (after CXMT). Per the offering announcement disclosed on July 30: preliminary price inquiry on Aug 5, pricing on Aug 6, online roadshow Aug 7 (14:00-17:00), online/offline subscription Aug 10, and payment due Aug 12. CITIC Securities is sponsor and lead underwriter. The offering combines a strategic placement (initially 8.09 million shares, 20%), an offline tranche (25.89 million) and an online tranche (6.47 million). On completion, Unitree becomes the A-share market's first humanoid-robot stock.

Offering Terms: RMB 4.2bn Raise at a ~RMB 42bn Valuation

Unitree plans to issue 40.4464 million new shares — 10% of post-issue share capital (~404 million shares) — to raise RMB 4.202 billion, implying an offering valuation of about RMB 42 billion. Dividing the target raise by the share count gives an indicative price of ~RMB 103.9 per share; a standard STAR Market lot of 500 shares implies ~RMB 52,000 per lot. The final price is subject to the August 6 announcement. Some market commentary reported by Sina Finance on July 27 anticipates a post-listing market cap approaching RMB 100 billion — media-relayed sentiment, not an official figure. Proceeds fund four projects: embodied-AI model R&D (RMB 2.022bn, nearly half), robot-body R&D, new product development and a manufacturing base — an R&D-heavy allocation. Governance features dual-class shares: founder Wang Xingxing holds 44.07 million Class A shares carrying 10 votes each, giving him 23.82% of shares and 68.78% of voting rights.

Financials: 226.78% CAGR, 60% Gross Margin — and a 2026 Speed Bump

Per the SSE review-reply filing: revenue grew from RMB 159m (2023) to RMB 392m (2024) and RMB 1,699m (2025), a 226.78% CAGR; recurring net profit went from RMB -18m to RMB 78m to RMB 591m (34.77% recurring margin in 2025); blended gross margin rose from 44.75% to 57.22% to 60.44%. Note the accounting nuance: 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was about RMB 288m (per broker reports citing the prospectus), far below the RMB 591m recurring figure due to non-recurring items. Humanoid robots reached 51.78% of 2025 revenue, overtaking quadrupeds, with over 5,500 humanoid units shipped in 2025 per the prospectus. Against peers in 2025 — UBTech (RMB 2,001m revenue, 37.67% gross margin, RMB -715m recurring loss), Dobot, DEEP Robotics, Leju — Unitree is a rare profitable-at-scale humanoid maker. But the prospectus flags deceleration: Q1 2026 revenue of RMB 423m grew 68.49% (vs 332.64% a year earlier) and recurring profit fell 52.55%; H1 guidance implies a 6.43-21.97% profit decline.

Sector Effect: A Pricing Anchor for Humanoids on the STAR Market

The prospectus states plainly that the A-share market has no listed general-purpose robotics company. Unitree's listing therefore matters beyond one firm: it creates the first A-share benchmark for humanoid-robot revenue, margins and valuation. It also lands on the tail of the STAR Market's 'super IPO month': CXMT surged 471.59% on debut July 27 with a record 9.43 million online subscribers; Enflame's registration became effective July 9; media counts put 79 companies in the STAR Market review pipeline as of late July, dominated by semiconductors, embodied AI and commercial space. On policy, the CSRC extended the STAR Market's fifth listing standard to AI foundation-model companies in June 2026, and the pre-review mechanism has compressed review timelines. A robotics IPO queue is forming (per Guotai Haitong research): DEEP Robotics cleared STAR Market tutoring acceptance in May and Leju cleared ChiNext acceptance in April, while AgiBot, Galbot, Xinghaitu, Fourier, EngineAI and Noetix have completed shareholding reform, mostly eyeing Hong Kong. Unitree's pricing will be the reference point for the entire queue.

Late-August Update · Verified (data current as of 2026-08-31): The Drawdown After Day One

Reported (Sina Finance, August 30, 2026): Unitree's market value stood at roughly RMB 236.6bn — about a 30% drawdown from the RMB 341.8bn first-day close on August 19, though still roughly 2.9 times the RMB 60.99bn implied at issue.

Note: this figure comes from a single media source and we could not obtain independent corroboration, so it is marked reported rather than verified. Check live quotes before citing. This report makes no forecast of subsequent price action.

Relation to this report's call: the first-day review argued that the gap between the RMB 60.99bn issue valuation and the RMB 341.8bn close was scarcity pricing, not earnings extrapolation — Unitree was then the only listed humanoid-robot name in the A-share market. If the drawdown holds, that scarcity premium is being repriced, a process that typically accelerates as comparable listings arrive or the first earnings report lands. Reported (Sina Finance, same day): more than RMB 300bn of embodied-AI assets are queued for listing — as those arrive, scarcity itself ceases to be a variable.

Early-September Update · Verified (data current as of 2026-09-09): Two Weeks After Listing the Stock Has Halved From Its RMB 1,100 Debut Open and Lost Another 9.35% on the Week, While Unitree Releases the UnifoLM-X2-1.0 Real-Time World Model

Public market data (Sina Finance, September 2, 2026): Unitree Robotics (688836) closed at RMB 546.02 on September 2, down 4.39% on the day, for a closing market value of about RMB 220.8 billion. The close sits 50.4% below the RMB 1,100 opening price on the August 19 debut, so the stock has halved within two weeks of listing; the market value implied by the debut opening price was RMB 444.9 billion, and by September 2 it had shrunk by half. Against the RMB 150.80 offer price the stock is still up about 262%, and the market value is about 3.6 times the post-offering RMB 60.99 billion.

Public market data (ifeng.com weekly review, published September 6, 2026): In the week of August 31 to September 4 the stock fell from the prior Friday close of RMB 585.0 to RMB 530.3, a weekly loss of 9.35%. The weekly high was RMB 591.0 (September 1) and the low RMB 528.85 (September 4); the September 4 close implied a market value of RMB 214.487 billion. The same review records that the company has completed its post-listing registry changes: registered capital rose from RMB 364.017906 million to RMB 404.464340 million, an increase of RMB 40.446434 million that matches the number of shares issued in the IPO, and the entity type changed from "foreign-invested, unlisted" to "foreign-invested, listed".

Reported (Crypto Briefing, September 7, 2026; also logged by Humanoids Daily the same day): On September 7 Unitree released UnifoLM-X2-1.0, a real-time world model, with a sparring demonstration on its G1 humanoid. The company says the model predicts object motion, contact forces and the robot's own response before each action, and that it neither follows pre-scripted behaviors nor needs remote human operation. The model follows the UnifoLM-WMA-0 framework open-sourced in September 2025; the G1 used in the demonstration is priced at about USD 16,000 to 18,000. The reports do not say whether X2-1.0 will be open-sourced.

Effect on this report's conclusions: The price data reinforce the report's view that a 219x offering P/E cannot serve as a pricing anchor for the sector. The stock halved from its debut opening price within two weeks of listing and the same week closed down a further 9.35%, which points to first-day pricing driven by the scarcity of freely tradable shares with limited support from earnings expectations. The world model release is a positive step on the technology side, carries no order or revenue figures yet, and does not change the valuation conclusions. The latest closing data verified for this section are for September 4; trading from September 7 to 9 will be covered in the next update.

Mid-to-Late-September Update · Verified (data current as of 2026-09-25): Shares oscillate between RMB 458 and 515 on shrinking volume, market cap back near RMB 200bn, two sub-RMB 100k products launched and the G1 price cut within a month of listing

Public market data (Eastmoney daily bars for 688836, September 9–24, 2026): The stock closed at RMB 498.55 on September 10, below RMB 500, and at RMB 477.12 on September 11, which on roughly 404 million post-IPO shares puts market cap near RMB 193bn. On September 16 it printed an intraday low of RMB 458.02, the lowest since listing and about 46% below the first-day close of roughly RMB 845. It rebounded 6.1% to RMB 503.26 on September 17 and closed at RMB 514.98 on September 18, then drifted back to RMB 488.00 on September 24, a market cap of about RMB 197bn and still 224% above the RMB 150.80 issue price. Turnover shrank alongside: September 23 traded RMB 828m, down more than 70% from RMB 2.98bn on September 1.

Confirmed (Beijing News / Beike Finance, September 19, 2026): On September 14 the company launched the G1+, an upgraded humanoid, with the standard version starting at RMB 95,000; upgrades cover head articulation, battery life and the vision system. The original G1 has been cut from RMB 99,000 to RMB 85,000. The same report records the September 18 close of RMB 514.98, a market cap of RMB 208.3bn and a 241.5% gain over the issue price, consistent with the exchange data.

Reported (MyDrivers Unitree topic page, September 22, 2026): The company released the Dex5-S dexterous hand: 22 degrees of freedom, 1:1 human-hand size, about 620 grams, starting at RMB 39,900. Two launches within a month of the August 19 listing, both priced under RMB 100,000, plus the G1 cut, mean the company is cutting whole-machine prices and selling components separately at the same time.

Effect on this report's conclusions: This reinforces the late-August "post-debut drawdown" view: the first-day market cap of about RMB 342bn did not hold, and in September the stock traded near RMB 200bn on shrinking volume, with both selling pressure and buying interest fading. One correction: the August version anchored valuation on secondary-market sentiment; the September pricing of the G1+ and Dex5-S and the G1 cut show the company trading price for volume, extending the decline in average humanoid selling prices already cited in the report into the post-listing period. Whether the valuation stabilizes depends on the order growth those price cuts buy; IPO enthusiasm is no longer a pricing factor.

Late-September to Early-October Update · Verified (data current as of 2026-10-02): Unitree hits a new post-listing low near RMB 450 intraday on September 29 and closes the last pre-holiday session at RMB 450.40; JPMorgan reportedly initiates at Underweight with a RMB 300 target

Market data (Phoenix New Media, September 29, 2026; Sina Finance, October 2, 2026): Phoenix reported that Unitree fell to around RMB 450 intraday on September 29, a new post-listing low. Sina Finance reported that on September 30, the last trading day before the National Day holiday, the stock closed at RMB 450.40. That is about 59% below the first-day open of RMB 1,100, and still about three times the RMB 150.80 issue price.

Reported (Sina Finance, reposting an article by Lingtong She, October 2, 2026): According to the article, JPMorgan initiated coverage of Unitree in a humanoid-robot sector report on the first day of the holiday (October 1), with an Underweight rating and a RMB 300 target. Using the total share count, the article calculates that the pre-holiday close implies about 46 times 2027 expected sales, versus about 30 times at JPMorgan's target, with similar implied 2027 revenue; the gap lies in the multiple, not the revenue outlook. The JPMorgan report itself is not publicly available, and we found only this one repost.

Verified (Unitree announcement, via Southern Finance and Eastmoney, September 29, 2026): Unitree added RMB 36 million to its 2026 estimate for routine related-party transactions, all sales of products to related parties: RMB 10 million, RMB 20 million and RMB 6 million to three related companies in Hangzhou, Shanghai and Zhejiang respectively, each from an original estimate of zero. The company said the change reflects actual business needs and is priced at fair market value.

Impact on this report's thesis: the new facts extend our observation on IPO pricing. The stock is down about 60% from its first-day open but still about three times the issue price, so the secondary market is still working off the debut premium. As reported, the first foreign sell-side view differs on the multiple rather than on revenue, which suggests the market is starting to value the company on sales multiples; whether humanoid revenue can move from university and research purchases into industrial and commercial use will decide whether that multiple holds. The checkpoint is the third-quarter report: whether the research and education share of revenue falls, and how much of the new related-party sales actually occurs. This is an after-the-fact record and not investment advice.

Key Questions

When is the Unitree IPO subscription, and what is the indicative price?

Online and offline subscription is on August 10, 2026, with payment due August 12; preliminary inquiry was August 5 and pricing August 6. Unitree plans to issue 40.45 million shares to raise RMB 4.202 billion, implying a ~RMB 42 billion valuation and an indicative price of about RMB 104 per share (one 500-share lot ≈ RMB 52,000). Final price is set in the August 6 announcement. This is not a subscription recommendation.

How are Unitree's revenue and profits, and is growth slowing?

Revenue grew from RMB 159 million (2023) to RMB 1.699 billion (2025), a 226.78% CAGR, with 2025 recurring net profit of RMB 591 million, a 60.44% gross margin, and humanoids at 51.78% of revenue. However, Q1 2026 recurring profit fell 52.55% year-on-year, and H1 2026 guidance implies a 6.43%-21.97% profit decline — a clear deceleration. Not investment advice.

Why was Unitree's IPO review so fast, and who controls the company?

The review took just 104 days — accepted March 20, 2026, registration effective July 2 — as the second deal under the STAR Market pre-review mechanism (after CXMT), among 2026's fastest A-share IPOs; CITIC Securities is sponsor. Founder Wang Xingxing directly holds 23.82% and controls 68.78% of voting rights via 10:1 super-voting shares; outside shareholders reportedly include Sequoia China, Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan- and Xiaomi-affiliated funds.

Sourcing and standards

Compiled from public sources; data current as of 2026.08.03. The text separates verified facts, reported claims, our own estimates and disputed points, and states the derivation behind every estimate. When we get something wrong, the correction is written into the report body with the original call left visible, and logged publicly.

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