具身智能与人形机器人投资 2026(年中刷新版)

Executive Summary · English

(Data updated to Aug 1, 2026) This refresh brings the report current through August 1. Three threads accelerated in late July. On mass production, MIIT maintained its guidance that China's full-year humanoid output could exceed 100,000 units, while Tesla's Q2 call confirmed zero Optimus output to date with the Fremont line still being installed, and Figure surpassed 350 Figure 03 deliveries, deploying into BMW's Spartanburg plant. On capital markets, Unitree set Aug 5 book-building and Aug 10 subscription, Dobot cleared its listing hearing, and Anthropic reportedly began investor meetings targeting an October Nasdaq debut. On the "brain" layer, Moonshot opened Kimi K3's 2.8-trillion-parameter weights on July 26, then reportedly raised $3.5B at a $35B post-money valuation. Upstream, compute and power constraints moved to the fore. Compiled from public information; not investment advice.

• 01Unitree enters the final stretch: after IPO registration took effect July 2 (104 days from acceptance, a STAR Market record), it announced Aug 5 book-building and Aug 10 subscription, offering ~40.46M shares (10% post-issue) to raise RMB 4.2B at an implied ~RMB 42B valuation; institutions see potential for a RMB 100B market cap post-listing. Dobot cleared its Shenzhen hearing in late July; Leju is in inquiry; DeepRobotics is under review.
• 02Production guidance lands: at the WAIC press conference in early July, MIIT projected China's 2026 humanoid output could exceed 100,000 units (vs ~14,400 China shipments in 2025; ~18,000-20,000 globally); Goldman raised its 2026 China shipment forecast from 28,000 to 50,000. Q1 robot exports reached RMB 11.32B, with humanoid exports up 210% YoY.
• 03Overseas ramp reality check: Tesla's July 22 Q2 call confirmed zero Optimus output to date with the Fremont line still being installed; the 2026 target is 50,000-100,000 units, with first units used for training-data collection, not customer delivery. Musk called it "the hardest product to scale manufacturing" in Tesla's history. Figure has delivered 350+ Figure 03 units; BotQ phase one is rated at 12,000 units/year, and Figure 03 now runs logistics sequencing at BMW Spartanburg.
• 04The brain-cost collapse materializes: Moonshot released the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 on July 16 (KDA hybrid linear attention, 1M-token context) and opened full weights on July 26 EDT, a day early, under a modified MIT license; it then reportedly closed a $3.5B round at a $35B post-money valuation, with a pre-IPO round planned for August at a rumored valuation of up to $50B and a Hong Kong Chapter 18C listing in view.
• 05Capital-market stratification accelerates: Anthropic reportedly filed a confidential S-1 on June 1, with bankers scheduling investor meetings since mid-July for a Nasdaq debut as early as October at a reported ~$965B valuation; DeepSeek is reportedly preparing an IPO with valuations cited between roughly RMB 350B and 500B across sources. The gap between primary-market narrative premium and public-market delivery pricing keeps widening.
• 06Compute and energy move upstream: Bloomberg reported July 22 that OpenAI plans to spend over $30B on a Georgia data center with 3.2GW of secured power, phasing in from 2028; Musk's xAI acquired APR Energy (~$1B, over 1GW of mobile turbines; closed in May per an FTC filing, surfacing mid-July). Power is becoming the binding upstream constraint for AI and embodied intelligence.