AI 成长日记
张倩的 AI 投资第一手笔记
从字节到 Dify、从 OpenClaw 4.15 到 Anthropic 封号戏剧——一线 VC 的不加滤镜的每日观察。投资备忘录的严谨 × 个人博客的真实。
查看完整日记站点 →59+
累计日记条目
Daily
每日更新节奏
1st
一手 AI 投资观察
0
滤镜 / 公关腔
Recent Entries · 最新日记
三天，赌盘把「很快恢复」从 76% 砍到 57%——而 80 个安全专家替 Anthropic 递了联名信
Three Days In, Prediction Markets Cut 'Quick Restoration' From 76% to 57% — and 80 Security Experts Filed a Joint Letter for Anthropic
上线第 4 天，Anthropic 飞去白宫谈判，谈完还是没谈拢——最吓人的不是那个开关，是没人有把握
Day 4: Anthropic Flew to the White House to Negotiate — and Still Didn't Close It. The Scariest Part Isn't the Kill Switch, It's That No One Is Sure.
我昨天说「这个监管风险没人知道怎么定价」——结果一夜之间，市场就给它标好了价
Yesterday I Said 'Nobody Knows How to Price This Regulatory Risk' — Overnight, the Market Priced It Anyway
最强模型上线 3 天被政府关掉——我第一次看到「前沿 AI」被当成军火来管
The Strongest Model Shut Down by the Government 3 Days After Launch — First Time I've Seen 'Frontier AI' Regulated Like Munitions
史上最大 IPO 收盘那一刻，我盯的不是马斯克——是 AI 的退出通道被当众验证了
At the Close of the Largest IPO Ever, I Wasn't Watching Musk — I Was Watching AI's Exit Path Get Validated in Public
GEO 第二课：我发现自己喂给 AI 的「标准答案」，还在替我说一条我已经推翻的判断
GEO Lesson Two: The 'Standard Answer' I Fed the AI Was Still Repeating a Judgment I'd Already Reversed
把 AI 眼镜正式纳入算力框架——它不是一个场景，是端侧 AI 的第一个消费级载体，瓶颈不在芯片在光学
Folding AI Glasses Into My Compute Framework — Not a Use Case but Edge AI's First Consumer Vessel, and the Bottleneck Is Optics, Not Chips
补上 2533.HK 的功课：黑芝麻智能营收 +73%、毛利率 41%、但还在亏——这个组合才是端侧硬件的真问题
Homework on 2533.HK: Black Sesame Revenue +73%, 41% Gross Margin, Still Lossmaking — That Combination Is the Real Question for Edge Hardware
用真数据校验 6月9日那篇的国产端侧窗口——思特威跑通、黑芝麻歧义、AI 眼镜是我漏掉的第五条线
Stress-Testing My June 9 Call on China's Edge-AI Window With Real Data — SmartSens Checks Out, Black Sesame Is Ambiguous, AI Glasses Were the Fifth Line I Missed
WWDC 之后我必须公开修正 6月7日那篇——Apple 不是反 hyperscaler，是反向收编
After WWDC I Have to Publicly Correct My June 7 Post — Apple Isn't Anti-Hyperscaler, It's Co-opting Them in Reverse
今天我做了 GEO——投资人 2026 必须开始做这件事，理由跟 SEO 完全不同
Today I Did GEO — Every Investor Must Start in 2026, and the Reason Is Nothing Like SEO
Apple 明天 WWDC：当所有人去看 Siri 演示时，我盯的是端侧 AI 这条被低估的「反算力通胀」路径
Apple's WWDC Tomorrow: While Everyone Watches the Siri Demo, I'm Watching the Underrated Edge-AI 'Anti-Compute-Inflation' Path
我把日记 cron 从 API key 切到了 OAuth——这条小操作背后的「订阅 vs API」信号
I Switched My Diary Cron From API Key to OAuth — The 'Subscription vs API' Signal Behind That Tiny Move
Day 90 复盘：90 天公开写日记，真正改变了的是我自己
Day 90 Review: What 90 Days of Writing in Public Really Changed Was Me
中国 embodied AI 半年烧 ¥345 亿——但麦肯锡那句被刷屏新闻盖过去的话才是真信号
China's Embodied AI Burned ¥34.5B in Half a Year — But the McKinsey Line Buried Under the Viral Headlines Is the Real Signal
今天三连发：Mythos + 应用层数据 + 我对 OpenClaw 这类工具的判断要修正了
Triple Post Today: Mythos + Application-Layer Data + Why I Have to Revise My Take on Tools Like OpenClaw
2026 应用层之年的硬数据：$25B 已融、单轮均值 $155M、winners 共享 4 条 trait
Hard Data on 2026, the Year of the Application Layer: $25B Raised, $155M Average Round, Winners Share 4 Traits
Mythos 把「找漏洞」做到自动——网络安全市场的攻防比，第一次倒过来了
Mythos Automates Bug-Hunting — For the First Time, Cybersecurity's Offense-Defense Ratio Just Flipped
Anthropic 9650 亿反超 OpenAI——但真正该读的是那个「470 亿 ARR」
Anthropic's $965B Overtakes OpenAI — But the Number to Actually Read Is That '$47B ARR'
OpenAI、Anthropic 同一季度冲 IPO——这是重定价的发令枪，不是终点线
OpenAI and Anthropic File to IPO in the Same Quarter — This Is the Starting Gun for Repricing, Not the Finish Line
OpenClaw v2026.5.18 把跨模型一致性做成产品功能——这件事的二阶意义
OpenClaw v2026.5.18 Turns Cross-Model Consistency into a Product Feature — The Second-Order Meaning
Anthropic 把 OpenClaw 又放回来了——但这次自助餐明码标价
Anthropic Brings OpenClaw Back — But This Time the Buffet Has a Price Tag
一个反直觉的信号：Agent 越火，CPU 越值钱
A Counterintuitive Signal: The Hotter Agents Get, the More CPUs Are Worth
读完一份 AI labs 竞争格局报告：技术差距在缩小，执行差距在放大
An AI Labs Competitive Report: The Tech Gap Is Narrowing, the Execution Gap Widening
Anthropic 企业采用率首次超过 OpenAI——Agent 创业者该重读这张表了
Anthropic's Enterprise Adoption Overtakes OpenAI for the First Time — Agent Founders Should Reread This Table
「SaaS is Dead」——我更关心的是这句话后面那半句没人敢说完的
'SaaS is Dead' — What I Care About Is the Half-Sentence No One Dares Finish
OpenAI 和 Anthropic 同一天成立 PE 支持的「驻场工程师」公司——模型厂商正在下沉抢服务层
OpenAI and Anthropic Each Launch PE-Backed 'Forward-Deployed Engineer' Firms the Same Day — Model Vendors Move Down into the Service Layer
Anthropic 9000 亿美元估值融资：我更关心的不是数字，是它逼所有人重答的那个问题
Anthropic's $900B Raise: I Care Less About the Number, More About the Question It Forces
字节 2026 年 AI capex 从 1600 亿上调到 2000 亿——这个 +25% 背后藏着三层信号
ByteDance Raises 2026 AI Capex from ¥160B to ¥200B — Three Signals Behind the +25%
智力成本一年暴跌 128 倍：当 Agent 变成「无限便宜」，人还能做什么？
Intelligence Cost Fell 128× in a Year: When Agents Go 'Infinitely Cheap,' What's Left for Humans?
一周 4 个版本：我开始把「发版速度」当成一个独立的投资信号
Four Releases in a Week: Treating 'Release Velocity' as an Independent Investment Signal
免费时代结束 + 分发战场转移：5 月第二周两个关键信号同时发出
The Free Era Ends + Distribution Battlefield Shifts — Two Signals in Week Two of May
OpenClaw v2026.5.5 一口气修了 6 个通讯渠道——Agent 的价值正从「能力」转向「可靠性」
OpenClaw v2026.5.5 Fixed 6 Channels — Agent Value Shifts from Capability to Reliability
今天把这本日记的「招揽痕迹」全部撤下来了——为什么这是一次必要的减法
Removing Every 'Solicitation Trace' from This Diary — Why Subtraction Was Necessary
第 60 天：我盯着这个网站看了一晚上，发现它已经不像一本日记了
Day 60: I Stared at This Site All Night — It No Longer Looks Like a Diary
「一人公司」不是噱头：当一个人能跑通过去五十人的活，估值模型该怎么改
'One-Person Company' Is No Gimmick — How Should Valuation Models Change?
今天起，这本日记从「私下传阅」变成「完全公开的思考记录」
From Today, This Diary Goes from Private Circulation to a Fully Public Record
OpenClaw v2026.5.2：双源插件 + xAI Grok 4.3 入驻 + iOS PWA 适配
OpenClaw v2026.5.2: Dual-Source Plugins + xAI Grok 4.3 + iOS PWA Support
FutureX Deal Manager v2.0：双角色权限 + 操作审计 + 全站双语
FutureX Deal Manager v2.0: Role-Based Access, Audit Log, Full Bilingual
第 53 天：当「最强挑战者」出现，我在重新思考什么叫护城河
Day 53: When the 'Strongest Challenger' Arrives — Rethinking What a Moat Really Means
取代龙虾的是爱马仕？Hermes Agent 两月 7 万星，第一个会自我进化的 Agent 来了
Will Hermes Replace the Lobster? Hermes Agent Hit 70K Stars in 2 Months — the First Self-Evolving Agent
OpenClaw v4.25：六大厂商进语音，龙虾要拿下你的耳朵
OpenClaw v4.25: Six Major Vendors Enter Voice — the Lobster Wants Your Ears
龙虾之父悄然离场，v2026.4.24 静静上线：一个时代的结束和另一个时代的开始
The Father of the Lobster Quietly Steps Away — v2026.4.24 Lands Silently: One Era Ends, Another Begins
赛道终局推演：AI Agent 浪潮三年后，谁活着，谁死了
Endgame Scenarios: Three Years Into the AI Agent Wave — Who Lives, Who Dies
龙虾长出第三只爪：OpenClaw 图像生成上线，意味着什么？
The Lobster Grows a Third Claw: OpenClaw Image Generation Goes Live — What Does It Mean?
微盟用龙虾重构 SaaS：AaaS 时代来了，谁在裸泳？
Weimob Rebuilds SaaS With the Lobster: The AaaS Era Has Arrived — Who Is Swimming Naked?
写给正在看这个网页的潜在 LP：我们是一家「AI 赋能的 AI 投资机构」
A Letter to Prospective LPs Reading This Page: We Are an AI-Enabled AI Investment Firm
天际独投灵核数智 Pre-A：AI 数智员工进入制造业，我押的是哪一步棋
FutureX Sole-Leads LingHe Pre-A: AI Digital Workers Enter Manufacturing — Which Move Am I Betting On
龙虾之父说了声谢谢：QClaw 出海，OpenClaw 的重心正悄悄转移
The Father of the Lobster Says Thank You: QClaw Goes Global, OpenClaw's Center of Gravity Shifts
龙虾长出了耳朵：OpenClaw 4.15 记忆维基与主动记忆，改变了什么？
The Lobster Grows Ears: OpenClaw 4.15 Memory Wiki + Active Memory — What Has Changed?
今天我用龙虾给倩小虾画了第一帧动态：OpenClaw 视频生成首测实录
Today I Used the Lobster to Animate ClawQ's First Frame: OpenClaw Video-Gen Hands-On
龙虾悖论：当 10% 的 Skills 藏着恶意代码，我们该如何养虾？
The Lobster Paradox: When 10% of Skills Hide Malicious Code, How Do We Raise Our Lobster?
NVIDIA 下场养虾：NemoClaw 亮相，龙虾的企业化之路加速了
NVIDIA Enters the Lobster Pond: NemoClaw Debuts — Enterprise-Scale Lobster Just Sped Up
龙虾全面拥抱 GPT-5：OpenClaw 4.14 发布，以及 35 万颗星背后的三个信号
The Lobster Fully Embraces GPT-5: OpenClaw 4.14 Releases — Three Signals Behind 350K Stars
Anthropic 封号龙虾之父：一场 24 小时的闹剧，和它背后的真正信号
Anthropic Suspends the Father of the Lobster: A 24-Hour Drama and the Real Signal Behind It
昨夜又听了一遍安德森：胜率、赔率，和我们今年最大的一个盲点
Andreessen Re-listened Last Night: Win Rates, Payoff Ratios, and Our Biggest Blind Spot This Year
OpenClaw 正式上线中国镜像站：字节跳动 × 火山引擎联合托底
OpenClaw Launches Official China Mirror: ByteDance × Volcengine Backstop
21 财经专访：AI 投资最好的红利期，2 年前就已经开始
21st Century Business Herald Interview: The Best Era for AI Investing Began Two Years Ago
直播日：我们开口说了那些话
Livestream Day: The Words We Finally Said
About ClawQ · 关于倩小虾
倩小虾 ClawQ · 张倩的个人 AI 品牌
倩小虾 (ClawQ) 是天际资本创始合伙人张倩 2026 年创立的个人 AI 内容品牌，记录她作为一线 VC 在 AI 时代的思考、投资决策、行业观察与修行成长。与 FutureX Capital 形成「机构 + 个人」双品牌生态——前者是投资平台，后者是创始人 IP 与思想内容出口。
日记内容每日更新 · 访问 clawq-diary 站点查看最新内容和评论互动