China's Memory Duo Goes Public: How the CXMT and YMTC IPOs Reshape the Semiconductor Sector (Updated July 18, 2026)

After the July 16 subscription (9.429mn valid accounts; a record-low 0.4714% online allotment rate), CXMT listed on schedule on July 27. It opened at RMB 49.5 — up 471.59% from the RMB 8.66 issue price — rose over 530% intraday (high of RMB 55.03), and closed at RMB 49, up 465.82%. Turnover reached RMB 141.19bn, an A-share single-stock daily record, and the RMB 3.28tn closing market cap made it the largest listed company in the A-share market; one allotment lot (500 shares) earned roughly RMB 20,000. Momentum carried through the first week: July 31 closed at RMB 53.97 (+2.08% on the day), for a ~RMB 3.61tn cap and ~+523% versus issue price. The ~RMB 57.9bn raise (with up to 15% greenshoe) is the STAR Market's largest ever; Reuters put it at ~$8.6bn. The pricing debate now centers on earnings delivery: the company guides H1 2026 revenue of RMB 110-120bn and net profit of RMB 50-57bn, and Reuters reported ~$7.5bn Q1 revenue, +719% YoY. Verified trading records versus unproven earnings durability define the two poles of the post-listing debate.

YMTC's path to market advanced through July: after registering for tutoring with the Hubei CSRC bureau on May 19 (CITIC Securities and CSC as joint advisors), the CSRC website disclosed its first-stage tutoring report on July 10; by July 31 multiple outlets reported the first stage complete, with institutions expecting a Q4 listing at the earliest — still a 'reported' timeline pending regulatory acceptance and formal filing. Fundamentally, multiple sources corroborate Q1 2026 revenue above RMB 20bn, though reported YoY growth rates vary widely (from ~100% to 445%); precise figures await the prospectus. Counterpoint puts its Q1 global NAND share at ~13%, fourth worldwide; reports indicate 294-layer products in volume production, enterprise SSDs entering major domestic cloud providers' supply chains, and Phase 3 slated for end-2026, lifting planned capacity from 200k to 300k wafers/month. Valuation views diverge sharply: Reuters reported (July 24) an internal push for a RMB 1tn target — unverified — while market chatter spans from low hundreds of billions to a trillion. This report takes no view.

The price upcycle continues to underpin both IPOs, though its slope is flattening. Channel signals: per Taiwan's Economic Daily News citing ADATA's chairman, suppliers have notified Q3 contract-price increases of 20-30% for DRAM and 35-40% for NAND. Research-house forecasts are more restrained: TrendForce projects Q3 conventional DRAM contract prices up 13-18% QoQ and NAND up 10-15%, with server DRAM up 13-18% (long-term agreements capping gains), while flagging that consumer affordability has peaked and momentum is slowing markedly from the prior two quarters — 'still rising, but flatter' is the neutral Q3 description. Producer profit realization now has hard data: Kioxia's July 31 results showed quarterly revenue of ¥1,767.1bn, +415.5% YoY, on sharply higher ASPs, and its stock rose 17.7% in a day; UBS reportedly raised its DRAM/NAND price forecasts again in early July, BofA reportedly extends the supercycle to end-2027, and Micron's HBM capacity is reportedly sold out through 2027. The cycle's length and turning point remain the biggest fundamental variables for both IPO valuations.

The past three weeks have largely confirmed this report's two central claims: the memory upcycle is turning into real profit, and YMTC's fourth-quarter listing window remains on track. Confirmed (Caixin, IT Home, Aug 19): YMTC's IPO tutoring status changed to "acceptance review" exactly three months after its May 19 registration, the fastest timeline the rules allow, with CITIC Securities and CITIC Construction Investment as advisers; the next step is filing with the exchange. Confirmed (Cailian Press, National Business Daily, Aug 28): CXMT's first post-IPO interim report showed H1 revenue of RMB 150.3 billion, up 873.6% year on year, and a swing from loss to a net profit of RMB 77.6 billion. Confirmed (Sina Finance, China.com, Aug 17): CXMT's market value climbed back above RMB 4 trillion in mid-August, cementing its position as China's most valuable listed company. The open question has shifted. It is no longer whether the cycle arrives, but what multiple cyclical earnings deserve, and valuation has risen even faster than profits. All figures are from third-party public sources; nothing here is investment advice.

Confirmed (IT Home, September 4, 2026, relaying the Shanghai Stock Exchange review notice): On the evening of September 3, the STAR Market review status of Yangtze Memory Holdings' IPO changed from "accepted" to "under inquiry," nine working days after acceptance on August 21. The company plans to raise 33 billion yuan, the largest amount ever filed on the STAR Market, with 20.8 billion yuan for production-line technology upgrades and 12.2 billion yuan for R&D projects; CITIC Securities and CSC Financial are the sponsors. The filing shows a 78.73% gross margin on NAND products, third place worldwide and first in China by both sales and shipment volume in the first quarter of 2026, and a 14% share of global NAND bit shipments in the second quarter.

Reported (TechTimes, September 3, 2026, citing Counterpoint Research data published September 1): CXMT took 10% of global DRAM revenue in the second quarter of 2026. Samsung held 38%, SK Hynix 25% and Micron 24%, a combined 87%, the first time the three have fallen below 90%. Counterpoint and UBS had previously projected that CXMT would not reach a 10% shipment share until 2028, so the milestone arrived about two years early. The figure is Counterpoint's estimate; CXMT has not disclosed its own quarterly share.

Public market data (Investing.com, September 8, 2026): CXMT (688825) closed at 58.39 yuan on September 8, down 0.14% from the previous close of 58.47 yuan, with an intraday range of 57.61 to 59.39 yuan. The 52-week range is 38.11 to 61.80 yuan, so the post-listing high stands at 61.80 yuan. The current price is about 6.7 times the 8.66 yuan issue price and about 5.5% below the high.

Impact on this report's conclusions: Two judgments are reinforced. YMTC's listing has moved from "tutoring completed, fourth-quarter window in sight" to "exchange inquiry under way," and nine working days from acceptance to inquiry raises the probability of a fourth-quarter listing; the 33 billion yuan raise sets a new STAR Market filing record. CXMT's 10% DRAM revenue share and YMTC's 14% NAND bit share support the view that the memory cycle underpins IPO pricing. One expectation needs revision: just over a month after listing, CXMT is trading sideways near 58 yuan, about 5.5% below its high, so the initial listing premium has largely been absorbed and the share price will track DRAM contract prices more than listing momentum.

Verified (Reuters via Investing.com, September 21, 2026): At the 2026 World Manufacturing Convention in Hefei, CXMT announced that its fifth-generation DRAM platform (G5) has entered mass production, with a memory-array half-pitch of 11.95 nanometres. The first two products on the platform are LPDDR5X parts for smartphones and portable consumer devices, each holding 24 gigabits per die, a 50% increase over the prior generation; die output per wafer is at least 50% higher. CXMT (688825) shares rose 2.6% to 56.97 yuan that day. Against the 8.66 yuan IPO price already recorded in this report, the stock is up about 558%, and about 5.6% above the July 31 close of 53.97 yuan.

Public market data (Sohu Securities, September 15, 2026): CXMT closed at 54.22 yuan on September 15, down 0.5%, on turnover of 9.844 billion yuan, with net main-force inflows of 24.14 million yuan. Against the 141.187 billion yuan traded on the July 27 debut, as recorded in this report, daily turnover has fallen to under one-tenth of the first-day level, and the stock has held in a 53–57 yuan range. Pricing has shifted from debut-day sentiment to earnings and product cadence.

Verified (TrendForce, September 21, 2026): TrendForce published a report on September 21 stating that stronger North American demand, led by U.S. cloud service providers, will keep enterprise SSD (TLC and QLC) contract prices rising in the fourth quarter of 2026. The report gives no percentage range. The direction matters here: the NAND side of the price cycle that supports YMTC's offering valuation is expected to extend into Q4 rather than roll over after the third-quarter increases.

Effect on this report's conclusions: This reinforces the report's view that the memory upcycle sets a floor under IPO pricing. Q4 enterprise SSD contract price guidance still points up, and CXMT's G5 ramp advances its product cadence by a generation; together they support CXMT's current valuation and the pricing expectations for YMTC's offering. One correction: the July view that YMTC could list as early as Q4 was optimistic. Our search found no change in its review status between September 9 and 25, so the listing date depends on how quickly the exchange's inquiry rounds conclude.

Verified (CXMT announcement, reported by Cailian Press, Eastmoney, The Paper and MyDrivers, September 28, 2026): CXMT plans to use 13 billion yuan of over-raised IPO proceeds for a new technology R&D project with total investment of 24.1 billion yuan and a 30-month build period. It will also provide 5 billion yuan of over-raised proceeds, through a capital injection and loans, to its wholly owned subsidiary CXMT Products (Hefei) for phase two of a memory wafer back-end test base, a 10.8-billion-yuan facility for DRAM testing and module assembly. The two projects total 34.9 billion yuan and use 18 billion yuan of over-raised funds.

Reported (TrendForce, via Sina Finance, October 1, 2026): TrendForce expects Q4 2026 conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10-15% quarter on quarter and NAND Flash to rise 15-20%. Server DRAM remains in short supply, though long-term contracts cap some increases; enterprise SSD price gains are set to widen in Q4 as cloud providers expand AI inference infrastructure; mobile DRAM gains are expected to narrow and client SSD increases are being held back.

Implications for this report: This strengthens our pricing-reset thesis. Price increases are carrying from Q3 into Q4, and NAND is forecast to rise faster than DRAM, which supports the pricing backdrop for YMTC's Q4 listing window. CXMT is putting 18 billion yuan of over-raised funds into R&D and back-end test capacity, so its expansion cycle has started; but the R&D project has a 30-month build period, which by our arithmetic means completion around 2029, so it does not change near-term supply and demand. Threshold to watch: TrendForce already flags slowing gains in mobile DRAM and client SSD. If Q1 2027 contract price forecasts turn flat or negative, our assumption that the memory supercycle underpins IPO pricing will need revising.