China's Memory Duo Goes Public: How the CXMT and YMTC IPOs Reshape the Semiconductor Sector (Updated July 18, 2026)

After the July 16 subscription (9.429mn valid accounts; a record-low 0.4714% online allotment rate), CXMT listed on schedule on July 27. It opened at RMB 49.5 — up 471.59% from the RMB 8.66 issue price — rose over 530% intraday (high of RMB 55.03), and closed at RMB 49, up 465.82%. Turnover reached RMB 141.19bn, an A-share single-stock daily record, and the RMB 3.28tn closing market cap made it the largest listed company in the A-share market; one allotment lot (500 shares) earned roughly RMB 20,000. Momentum carried through the first week: July 31 closed at RMB 53.97 (+2.08% on the day), for a ~RMB 3.61tn cap and ~+523% versus issue price. The ~RMB 57.9bn raise (with up to 15% greenshoe) is the STAR Market's largest ever; Reuters put it at ~$8.6bn. The pricing debate now centers on earnings delivery: the company guides H1 2026 revenue of RMB 110-120bn and net profit of RMB 50-57bn, and Reuters reported ~$7.5bn Q1 revenue, +719% YoY. Verified trading records versus unproven earnings durability define the two poles of the post-listing debate.

YMTC's path to market advanced through July: after registering for tutoring with the Hubei CSRC bureau on May 19 (CITIC Securities and CSC as joint advisors), the CSRC website disclosed its first-stage tutoring report on July 10; by July 31 multiple outlets reported the first stage complete, with institutions expecting a Q4 listing at the earliest — still a 'reported' timeline pending regulatory acceptance and formal filing. Fundamentally, multiple sources corroborate Q1 2026 revenue above RMB 20bn, though reported YoY growth rates vary widely (from ~100% to 445%); precise figures await the prospectus. Counterpoint puts its Q1 global NAND share at ~13%, fourth worldwide; reports indicate 294-layer products in volume production, enterprise SSDs entering major domestic cloud providers' supply chains, and Phase 3 slated for end-2026, lifting planned capacity from 200k to 300k wafers/month. Valuation views diverge sharply: Reuters reported (July 24) an internal push for a RMB 1tn target — unverified — while market chatter spans from low hundreds of billions to a trillion. This report takes no view.

The price upcycle continues to underpin both IPOs, though its slope is flattening. Channel signals: per Taiwan's Economic Daily News citing ADATA's chairman, suppliers have notified Q3 contract-price increases of 20-30% for DRAM and 35-40% for NAND. Research-house forecasts are more restrained: TrendForce projects Q3 conventional DRAM contract prices up 13-18% QoQ and NAND up 10-15%, with server DRAM up 13-18% (long-term agreements capping gains), while flagging that consumer affordability has peaked and momentum is slowing markedly from the prior two quarters — 'still rising, but flatter' is the neutral Q3 description. Producer profit realization now has hard data: Kioxia's July 31 results showed quarterly revenue of ¥1,767.1bn, +415.5% YoY, on sharply higher ASPs, and its stock rose 17.7% in a day; UBS reportedly raised its DRAM/NAND price forecasts again in early July, BofA reportedly extends the supercycle to end-2027, and Micron's HBM capacity is reportedly sold out through 2027. The cycle's length and turning point remain the biggest fundamental variables for both IPO valuations.