What did the "Open Source Breaks the Deadlock" keynote in Xiamen say?

Founding Partner Cynthia Zhang delivered it at the AI investment forum of the 2026 Fund-of-Funds Annual Forum and 7th Lujiang Venture Forum. It makes three points: why four curves are accelerating at once; why six of seven bubble signals are lit, with liquidity triggered; and why value lands in the application layer and at the open-source chokepoints. This cycle needs no bubble verdict; it needs the layer where value is highest. The bubble sits in the middle layer, which carries the most debt and must keep refinancing.

The liquidity signal triggered on August 17, 2026, when the 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.31%, crossing FutureX's threshold; the next day it reached 5.336%, the highest since 2007 (public market data). FutureX has scored the framework daily since March 2026.

The model layer cannot hold value: large models have no network effects and no switching costs, and the top US and Chinese models sit about 2.7% apart. The application layer can, on four moats and three screens. A closed model's moat is capital expenditure, which must be refinanced to survive; an open model's moat is a living community, which needs no refinancing. The first 5 of the deck's 30 pages are public, and 10 of the 24 reports gained a dated FutureX Position section the same day.

On January 27, 2025, DeepSeek wiped $589 billion off Nvidia's market value in one day, the largest one-day loss in US stock history, after training a GPT-4-class model for $5.6 million against $100 million-plus (reported). That day open source went from non-consensus to consensus.