What is FutureX Capital's seven-dimension bubble scorecard? (6 of 7 lit as of August 2026)

The seven signals are valuation, funding pace, new-entrant supply, narrative, fundamentals, liquidity and exits. FutureX's own system has scored them daily since March 2026, and the readings go into the dated FutureX Position sections of the reports concerned. The August 2026 reading lit six of the seven, with liquidity triggered. The framework answers one question: which layer must not be bought at the consensus price. It is not a tool for deciding whether to leave. The bubble sits in the middle layer that carries the most debt and must keep refinancing; the job is to find the layer that falling costs release. It is distinct from UBS's seven preconditions of a bubble; FutureX's seven dimensions are its own daily readings.

The liquidity signal triggered on August 17, 2026, when the 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.31% and crossed FutureX's threshold; the next day it reached 5.336%, the highest since 2007 (public market data).

Among the lit signals, model-layer attrition is the easiest to count: China's model layer drew only 22 investments in 2025, RMB 9.4 billion in total, down 52.9% year on year, with fewer than ten of a hundred companies funded and attrition above 90% (36Kr/Zero2IPO). Exits read as divergence: no AI company listed in the US in Q1 2026, while 155 Chinese companies went public in the first half. Two budget rules follow. Avoid long compute contracts signed at consensus prices. Watch capex growth; the turn comes when growth itself slows.

On August 26, 2026, Nvidia's CFO put top-five hyperscaler capex at about $800 billion for 2026 and $1.3 trillion for 2027, with customer purchase commitments up from $119 billion to $279 billion in a single quarter (confirmed).