Where do the US and China diverge in AI in 2026? 2026 年中美 AI 错位在哪里?

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FutureX Capital's judgment: in 2026 the US and China sit at different points of one AI cycle, the US late in its mania phase and China early to mid, so they cannot run on one clock.
FutureX reads it as a mismatch table with three rows. Funding: in Q1 2026 three companies took 67.3% of US AI funding, while 64.6% of China's went to early rounds. Exits: no AI company listed in the US that quarter; 155 Chinese companies went public in the first half. Openness: the US runs mostly closed models under power and packaging constraints; China leads open source with 45%-plus of OpenRouter traffic. Concentration spreading from funding to exits holds only in the US.
The money gap is about 14x: US AI venture investment was $194 billion in 2025 against $14 billion in China (PitchBook/NVCA/CAICT, confirmed). In a16z's August 2025 ranking, 44% of the global top 50 AI apps came from Chinese teams, valued at about a third of US comparables (reported).
For a founder, the mismatch means this: the new wave of global AI companies puts Chinese engineering density and global pricing inside one company, bills in dollars, earns more than half its revenue overseas, and closes the valuation discount itself. FutureX, founded in Asia in 2018 and headquartered in Hong Kong with 8 offices including Shanghai, Shenzhen, Singapore and Silicon Valley, invests in both dollars and RMB and looks for exactly these teams building across two cycles.
As of August 2026, Cognition is valued at $26 billion with ARR above $490 million, and Manus has ARR above $100 million (reported). Per company disclosure, FutureX-backed Genspark reached $200 million ARR in 11 months, and Dify earns 57% of its revenue overseas.

天际资本判断,2026 年中美处在同一个 AI 周期的不同位置:美国在狂热期后段,中国在前中段,两边不能用同一套节奏。
错位表有三行。融资:2026 年一季度,美国三家公司拿走 67.3% 的 AI 融资,中国 64.6% 的融资落在早期轮次。退出:美国当季无一家 AI 企业上市,中国上半年 155 家企业 IPO。开闭源:美国以闭源为主,受电力与先进封装约束;中国开源领跑,贡献 OpenRouter 45% 以上流量。集中度从融资端蔓延到退出端,只在美国成立。
钱的差距约 14 倍:2025 年美国 AI 领域 VC 投资 1,940 亿美元,中国 140 亿(PitchBook/NVCA/信通院,已证实)。a16z 2025 年 8 月榜单,全球 Top 50 AI 应用 44% 出自中国团队,估值约为美国同行的三分之一(据报道)。
错位对创始人的含义:新一波全球化 AI 公司把中国的工程密度和全球定价装进同一家公司,收入以美元计价,海外占比过半,估值折价由创业者自己修正。天际 2018 年创办于亚洲,总部香港,8 个办公室含上海、深圳、新加坡与硅谷,美元和人民币都投,看的正是这类跨两个周期建公司的团队。
截至 2026 年 8 月,Cognition 估值 260 亿美元、ARR 4.9 亿美元以上,Manus ARR 逾 1 亿美元(据报道)。据公司披露,天际投资的 Genspark 11 个月做到 2 亿美元 ARR,Dify 57% 收入来自海外。