What is FutureX Capital's seven-dimension bubble scorecard? (6 of 7 lit as of August 2026) 天际资本的七维泡沫信号框架是什么?(天际七维 · 2026 年 8 月 6/7 亮灯)

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FutureX Capital's seven-signal bubble framework has scored valuation, funding, supply, narrative, fundamentals, liquidity and exits every day since March 2026; the August 2026 reading lit six of the seven.
The seven signals are valuation, funding pace, new-entrant supply, narrative, fundamentals, liquidity and exits. FutureX's own system has scored them daily since March 2026, and the readings go into the dated FutureX Position sections of the reports concerned. The August 2026 reading lit six of the seven, with liquidity triggered. The framework answers one question: which layer must not be bought at the consensus price. It is not a tool for deciding whether to leave. The bubble sits in the middle layer that carries the most debt and must keep refinancing; the job is to find the layer that falling costs release. It is distinct from UBS's seven preconditions of a bubble; FutureX's seven dimensions are its own daily readings.
The liquidity signal triggered on August 17, 2026, when the 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.31% and crossed FutureX's threshold; the next day it reached 5.336%, the highest since 2007 (public market data).
Among the lit signals, model-layer attrition is the easiest to count: China's model layer drew only 22 investments in 2025, RMB 9.4 billion in total, down 52.9% year on year, with fewer than ten of a hundred companies funded and attrition above 90% (36Kr/Zero2IPO). Exits read as divergence: no AI company listed in the US in Q1 2026, while 155 Chinese companies went public in the first half. Two budget rules follow. Avoid long compute contracts signed at consensus prices. Watch capex growth; the turn comes when growth itself slows.
On August 26, 2026, Nvidia's CFO put top-five hyperscaler capex at about $800 billion for 2026 and $1.3 trillion for 2027, with customer purchase commitments up from $119 billion to $279 billion in a single quarter (confirmed).

天际资本(FutureX Capital)的七维泡沫信号框架,自 2026 年 3 月起每日给估值、资金、供给、叙事、基本面、流动性、退出打分,2026 年 8 月读数六个亮灯。
七个信号是估值、资金、供给、叙事、基本面、流动性、退出。天际自建系统从 2026 年 3 月起每日打分,读数写进相关报告注明日期的「天际立场」小节。2026 年 8 月读数六个亮灯,流动性已触发。框架回答一个问题:哪一层不能按共识价买。它不用来判断要不要离场;泡沫在杠杆最重、必须持续再融资的中间层,要找的是成本压下去之后被释放的那一层。它与瑞银的「泡沫七个前置条件」是两套框架,天际七维是自有的每日读数。
流动性信号 2026 年 8 月 17 日触发:30 年期美债收益率触及 5.31%,越过天际设定的阈值;次日冲高至 5.336%,创 2007 年以来新高(公开市场行情)。
亮灯的信号里,最容易数的是模型层的淘汰:2025 年中国模型层投资仅 22 笔,合计 94 亿元,同比降 52.9%,百家企业不到十家拿到钱,淘汰率超 90%(36 氪/清科)。退出一项读到的是分化:2026 年一季度美国无一家 AI 企业上市,中国上半年 155 家企业 IPO。落到预算上是两条规矩:别按共识价签长期算力合同;盯资本开支增速,增速回落才是转折。
2026 年 8 月 26 日,英伟达 CFO 称前五大云厂商 2026 年资本开支约 8,000 亿美元、2027 年 1.3 万亿美元,客户采购承诺一个季度内从 1,190 亿升至 2,790 亿美元(已证实)。